Alton Mayor Brant Walker

ALTON - Alton mayoral candidate Scott Dixon held a town hall meeting at the RiverBender.com Community Center on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017, in which he said current Alton Mayor Brant Walker uses "deceptive statistics" to make his administration look as if it is making Alton better.

Get The Latest News!

Don't miss our top stories and need-to-know news everyday in your inbox.

Dixon, as well as Joshua Young and Dan Rauschkolb, is running against Walker for the upcoming April 4, 2017, Alton mayoral election. Dixon held the town hall against the reelection of Walker. During that town hall, Dixon asserted crime is up in Alton, business is down and unemployment numbers have stagnated at 7.1 percent, which is higher than the entire St. Louis area's average as well as the county, state and national numbers. Dixon blamed the Walker administration for many of those numbers, saying he would spearhead an administration to revitalize Alton.

Some of the most important of those numbers - the crime statistics - were shown by Dixon to be on the rise. In his meeting, Dixon said the FBI National Crime Statistics showed Alton's crime rate increased by as much as six percent under the Walker administration, with violent crimes increasing a frightening 22 percent. Dixon also claimed rapes and murders had tripled in Alton under the Walker administration using those FBI statistics.

Alton Police Chief Jake Simmons said he was "baffled" by those numbers and "had no idea" where Dixon was "pulling them." Simmons provided a list of crime numbers in Alton to RiverBender.com, which showed crime had decreased as much as 11 percent under Walker's administration. When compared to the FBI National Crime Statistics database, Simmons's numbers are almost identical. In some cases, Simmons's numbers are actually higher than the FBI's statistics show.

Here are the numbers.

Note: The FBI has not completed 2016's crime statistics, nor does it provide statistics for 2009, also the definition of "rape" has changed from strictly forcible male or female genitalia penetration to any sort of unwanted penetration in 2014, which is reflected in the numbers. (CLICK IMAGE FOR A LARGER SIZE)

The FBI Crime Statistics database did not contain information for Alton in its 2009 Crime Statistics spreadsheet.

What do those numbers mean?

Under Walker's administration (2013-2016), there were a total of 540 violent crimes (classified as murder, rape, manslaughter, robbery, and aggravated assault/battery) in Alton, according to the city's numbers.

According to the FBI's official statistics, there were a total of 377 violent crimes perpetrated in Alton from 2013-2015 (the most recent year of available data). During that same time period, Simmons cited as many as 393 violent crimes, which is 16 more than the FBI revealed.

In the four years previous to Walker's administration (2009-2012), there were a total of 720 violent crimes, according to the city's numbers.

While the FBI does not have numbers for Alton in 2009, its statistics from 2010-2012 show a total of 450 violent crimes. Compared to the city's amount for that time - 424 - the FBI shows 26 more violent crimes.

Going by the city's numbers, which are very close to the FBI's official statistics, violent crime in Alton has fallen by as much as 26 percent, which is almost directly inverse to Dixon's claim violent crime has risen by as much as 22 percent.

Dixon's claim that murder and rape "have tripled" in Alton under Walker's administration is not true. There were a total of six murders under Walker's administration, compared to 13 in the previous four years. With the legal definition of rape changing in 2014, rape numbers have increased in Alton from 65 under the previous administration to 86 under Walker's. Even with that increase, the claim the numbers have tripled is an exaggeration.

Simmons and Walker agreed there was a "rise in nuisance crimes" under Walker's administration. Nuisance crimes are offenses such as theft of copper wiring, which Simmons said is directly related to the heroin epidemic ravaging the entire country through the late 2000s and early 2010s. That epidemic is beginning to wane, and Simmons said many people who would otherwise do heroin are turning to crack, he said, because they were worried about dying from heroin.

To combat those "nuisance crimes," and to help remedy the drug problem, the Alton Police Department has increased its drugs task force by 33 percent, adding another detective. Walker and Simmons said drug arrests have increased since, with nuisance crimes continuing to decrease.

Crimes from 2010-2012 compared to crimes from 2013-2015 showed slightly under a four percent decrease in total crimes, including both violent crimes and property crimes. Dixon showed an increase of as much as 5.8 percent when comparing 2013's numbers to 2015. However, neither claim concurs with the city's assertion crime has dropped by 11 percent under Walker. It should be noted, however, the FBI Crime Statistics database does not have information for 2009 or 2016. Without those statistics, a complete picture cannot be painted of the situation.

That four percent decrease was calculated by adding the total crimes of 2010-2012 (4,334) and dividing that number by the total crimes of 2013-2015 (4,175).

While Walker and Simmons take issues with Dixon's statistics, neither wanted to comment against him.

"I don't want to run a campaign based on tearing someone else down," Walker said. "I think people are getting sick of that these days."

When asked about his numbers, Dixon said he "vigorously opposed" the use of averaging to draw conclusions on crime under Walker versus the former administration of Tom Hoechst.

"To do so," he said, "is not statistically valid."

A graph Dixon created to show an increase in violent crime under Walker

Dixon said that trend would be hidden if one ignores trends and looks purely at averages. Dixon said his chart does not reflect admiration for Hoechst's administration, but instead reflects a failure of Walker's.

"By saying these things, I am not saying Hoechst is a great person or a great mayor," Dixon said in an email. "I'm simply saying that violent crime was on a clear downward path during Hoescht's term, and one could logically conclude that whatever the police department was doing under Hoeschst's administration appears to have been working. Then, next year, 2014, the first full year of Walker's term, violent crime jumped significantly, to 137 (a jump of more than 25 percent), then it fell slightly to 132 in 2015."

That calculation of 132 in 2015 jumped to 143 in 2016, according to the city's numbers, which is an increase in violent crime of just under eight percent. If 2016 was added to Dixon's graph, the upwards trend would continue. However, crime rates are not as high as they were under Hoechst's administration, according to averages. Dixon is correct, though, when he said violent crimes are on an increasing trend under the administration of Walker and Simmons.

Along with the lower crime rates comes a population decline. According to the United States Census Bureau, population in Alton has been on a steady decline since 1990, when 33,202 called the city home. As of July 2016, Alton had an estimated population of 26,972.

The largest exodus in Alton's population occurred from 2009-2010, according to numbers from the United States Census Bureau, when it experienced a drop of 1,433 citizens, from 29,264 in 2009 to 27,831 in 2010. That jump could be an anomaly created by the estimated population of 2009 to the actual census of 2010. A similar - but smaller - jump occurred from 1999-2000 as well. Anomalies aside, however, Alton has been on a gradual - but steady - population decline since at least 1990.

What about the other numbers?

Crime numbers were not the only criticism Dixon had for Walker's administration. He also accused Walker of being lax on slumlords. Dixon said under the administration of Walker - a landlord himself - as many as 88 percent of 3,500 citations against accused slumlords have been discarded.

Walker said his administration has since exceeded that 3,500 number, and said he plans on an upcoming push against more code violations through the building and zoning department. He said he had no control over what happened with those citations following their issuance.

"We cannot help what the court does with them," Walker said. "If the court or judge kicks them out, that is not under our control. We are up over 3,500, and we are not backing off."

Dixon also criticized 130 demolitions conducted under Walker's administration, saying: "We can't afford a mayor who prioritizes destruction and demolition over building and growth." Dixon assured his potential administration would take proactive measures to ensure such demolitions would not be needed.

Walker said the majority of those demolitions were necessary due to deterioration occurring previous to his administration. He showed several photographs of crumbling properties to a reporter from Riverbender.com, many of which could not even be entered to repair them.

"What are we supposed to do with buildings like these?" He asked. "They have been left to rot for so long."

Alton's economic woes were also a main focus of Dixon's criticism of Walker's administration. He said Walker's claim of 200 business licenses being issued was another deceptive statistic, saying the number is down 25 percent from the previous administration. Walker seemed dumbfounded by Dixon's assertion.

Article continues after sponsor message

"If you look at Broadway, the Beltline and Downtown, you can tell businesses are growing in Alton," Walker said. "I cannot control what goes on in New York City. I can't just call up Macy's and tell them to stay open here, but I can help bring more businesses to Alton."

According to numbers from the Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Walker's administration has seen retail sales increase in Alton from nearly $482 million when he took office in 2013, to an estimated $515 million in 2015 (the most recent year available). When Walker took office, sales had dropped by 2.5 percent from 2012-2013, according to the Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs's statistics. That number increased by 3.6 percent from 2013-2014 and 3.1 percent from 2014-15. Those numbers signaled the first growth in retail sales since 2010.

In fact, 2015 was the first year retail sales were at the same rate as they were previous to the Great Recession of 2008. In 2008, retail sales were at a slightly lower rate than 2015. Previous to 2008, however, retail sales were as high as an estimated $536 million.

Dixon said business license revenue has also dropped by as much as 13 percent since Walker took office, saying the total number of businesses is down in Alton. Walker could not comment on this number, but said he felt as if they did not reflect the numbers in retail sales, nor did they reflect his perception of Alton.

During the question and answer portion of his town hall, Dixon said unemployment numbers in Alton have been stagnant at 7.1 percent, which is higher than the county, the St. Louis Metro Area, the State of Illinois and the entire nation.

Here are Alton's actual unemployment numbers according to the National Bureau of Labor Statistics:

December 2016: 7.2 percent

May 2013 (when Walker took office): 11.6 percent

January 2007 (earliest statistics): 6.7 percent

Unemployment, according to the chart, was highest in Jan. 2010 with 15.1 percent, and lowest in April 2008 at 6.0 percent. With such a range of peaks and valleys from Jan. 2007-December 2016, Alton's unemployment numbers are far from stagnant. In fact, they have shown a steady decrease (with a few exceptions) from 14 percent in Jan. 2013 to 7.2 percent in December 2016.

While unemployment numbers are declining, Dixon said they are not where they should be in Alton, compared to its geography.

Throughout 2016, the unemployment rate for the St. Louis Metro Area, which includes Alton, hovered between four and five percent, with the most recent number (Dec. 2016) being 4.3 percent - a number much lower than Alton's 7.2 percent.

The State of Illinois's employment rate hovered between 5.5-6.6 percent throughout 2016, with the most recent numbers (Dec. 2016) being at 5.7 percent, which is also lower than Alton's rate.

The national unemployment rate has been virtually stagnated at around five percent, with Jan. 2017's unemployment numbers at 4.8 percent.

Madison County's unemployment rate is 5.4 percent, including Alton.

These numbers show Alton is not as well-off as many larger communities of which it is a part. However, unemployment in Alton is trending toward a decrease in numbers, even when taking seasonal fluctuations into account.

That, decrease, Dixon said, does not reflect the national trend, meaning, while Alton may be experiencing a drop in unemployment, it is not doing so fast enough.

"Alton's rate may have fallen numerically more than that of the U.S., but Alton had farther to fall, and still does," Dixon said in an email. "Alton's unemployment rate was much higher than that of the U.S. during the peak in nationwide unemployment during the 'great recession,' which peaked during Hoechst's term. I took a lot of economics courses during school, and got a minor in economics. You may have heard about the term 'natural unemployment rate,' which primarily refers to the structural unemployment in our economy due to people quitting and finding new jobs, but includes other things such as the mismatch between required skills for certain jobs and the skill level of the people.

"That rate is considered to be around 4.5 percent, which is near our current national unemployment rate. This means that the national unemployment rate should not be going down much more than it is now, no matter how healthy the economy, however, with Alton's unemployment rate being over seven percent, it is expected that our unemployment rate should be falling much faster than the rest of the areas around us, which have unemployment rates much lower than ours. So to say that Walkers' doing a great job because our unemployment rate has fallen six percent, or whatever it's dropped since it's peak, where the U.S. rate has not dropped that far, is not telling the full story. It's expected to drop more, since it's got such a long way to go between the prior peak and the full employment (natural unemployment) rate."

When asked by Simmons Hanley Conroy National Law Firm CEO John Simmons how he would bring more businesses to Alton at his town hall meeting, Dixon said he would work with the community to develop a new plan to update the city's current plan, which he said was about two decades old. Dixon said he would work with the community to create a business plan, into which everyone would be invested for the common good.

What about unfunded pensions and the budget?

Dixon also warned against unfunded pensions "that will not cost not only taxpayers, but city workers themselves." In fact, Alton does have unfunded pensions, which exceeded $85 million as of March 31, 2016. Those were not accrued under the Walker administration, nor the administration before him. They date back nearly three decades, and the city is still paying for them.

According to a 2013 report of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, Alton's police funding ratio is only 29.3 percent, and the firefighters fund is only 30.23 percent. Alton is a large offender in a state whose unfunded pension liabilities are in excess of $130 billion, according to a Nov. 2016 report from Reuters.

The budget, however, is a different story. Numbers from Scheffel-Boyle show the City of Alton's revenue exceeds its expenses. In 2013-2014, the city budgeted for a revenue of $39,596,867 and expense of $46,599,773, which would have resulted in spending more than it earned. The actual numbers, though, provided from an outside auditor, show total revenue at $37,006,934, which is less than budgeted, and an actual total expense of $36,670,278, which is much less than budgeted.

That trend continues in 2014-2015 with planned revenue at $45,102,362 and planned expenses of $48,444,106. Actual revenue was only $39,182,132, but actual expenses were only $37,559,621. In 2015-2016, the most recent numbers available, the city planned for a revenue of $48,138,644, which was much more than the actual revenue of $41,803,658, and planned for expenses of $46,181,020, while its actual expenses were $38,883,610.

Given those numbers, under Walker's administration, the city planned on being more than $7 million over budget in 2013-2014, but was actually more than $300,000 under budget. In 2014-2015, the city planned on being slightly more than $3 million over budget, but was actually slightly more than $1.6 million under budget. Most recently, in 2015-2016, the city planned on being over budget by nearly $2 million, but was under budget by slightly more than $2.9 million.

Infrastructure

Under Walker's administration, Dixon said Walker wasted taxpayers' money on an $11,000 hotel feasibility study, which resulted in nothing. In fact, no such chain hotel was ever built on the riverfront after that study, even after the current administration proposed as much as $3 million in taxpayer subsidies.

"Walker proposed $3 million in taxpayer subsidies for a generic chain motel on the riverfront," Dixon said in his presentation. "That type of motel is all wrong for Alton. An expensive hotel feasibility study had obvious flaws, and the banks knew it would fail, even with all these subsidies."

That estimated $11,000 was spent in 2014 to update a 2009 hotel feasibility study conducted by the previous administration. The study was prepared for the city by HVS Consulting and Valuation Services, and was unanimously authorized by the Alton City Council in May 2014. The study recommended the construction of a 110 room SpringHill Suites by Marriott with an adjoining 10,500-square-foot conference center. This was supposed to go on city-owned property formerly housing the Great Central Lumber Yard.

However, no ground was broken on the project, which was supported by both the Alton Regional Conventions and Visitors Bureau and the Riverbend Growth Association.

Dixon proposed an overhaul of the riverfront, which he described as "Alton's crown jewel." He said the current riverfront is not very inviting with "unattractive fencing," and an amphitheater operated by an out-of-town promotions company, which does not allow local vendors to sell food and drink during national acts coming into Alton. Dixon's concern for the amphitheater and riverfront area are shared by many Altonians, who have voiced similar complaints to RiverBender.com under the condition of anonymity.

Walker responded by stating the amphitheater works on a bidding system, which he said was open to anyone for bids. In previous interviews with RiverBender.com, Dixon has voiced his support for a more community-oriented amphitheater, which would be more accessible to the citizens.

When asked at his town hall how he would help pave the streets, Dixon said he would have to evaluate the budget and its needs. He said he would have a strong focus on parks, sewers and streets if elected.

In response to that same question, Walker presented RiverBender.com with plans to repair and renovate portions of Broadway, Washington and State Streets using federal grants. He also displayed work done through private-public partnerships at both Riverview Park and Gordon Moore Park.

"Our pot of money is only so big, and we have to spend it in a lot of different places," Walker said. "We are doing everything we can to find alternate streams of revenue, so we can get things done without taking too much from that pot."

Walker said infrastructure was second on his list of priorities - only being beaten by public safety. Third on his list, he said, was quality of life, which includes park development.

More like this:

2 days ago - Illinois Payroll Jobs Increase, Unemployment Rate Up Slightly in February

Jan 19, 2024 - Granite City Police Department Celebrates Significant Drop in Crime Rates  

Feb 6, 2024 - Area Unemployment Stats Close 2023 With Low Margins

Dec 29, 2023 - Unemployment Rate Close To Same In November 2023 To Year Ago In Region

Dec 26, 2023 - Illinois Payroll Jobs Increase, Unemployment Rate Up In November