This isn't the WNBA Finals matchup many expected or probably even wanted, and the lack of betting interest is indicative of that.
But it's also worth putting in perspective that the Atlanta-Golden State best-of-seven series that begins Saturday in San Francisco is attracting more betting action than a Finals matchup would have not that long ago.
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“With the boom in WNBA really starting with kind of the Caitlin Clark thing, while it hasn’t continued to boom, that floor has risen significantly,” BetMGM Sportsbook trader Christian Cipollini said. “We are still taking a lot more bets today than we did in 2022. So there is still a lot of action here, still a lot of interest. But these were two teams that weren’t really expected from a bettor's lens to be here.”
There almost certainly would have been more betting interest if Las Vegas and New York — which have combined to win the past four WNBA championships — had instead met. Both teams are filled with stars, including A'ja Wilson with the Aces and Breanna Stewart with the Liberty.
But both teams were swept in the semifinals, and now the Valkyries or Dream will win their first title. Atlanta has been close, reaching the Finals three times, most recently in 2013. Golden State is in just its second season, way ahead of what most observers would have predicted.
“I think there is virtually no interest with these two teams,” longtime handicapper Dana Lane said. “If Vegas was in it, New York was in, maybe, New York’s such a massive betting market.”
Sports betting is not legal in California or Georgia, so that limits much of the betting interest.
“I'll have to look at where the numbers end up actually shaking out, but it’s pretty safe to say that if we would have gotten Vegas-New York, our handle would be much higher," Cipollini said. “There’s two factors that go to that. Golden State is still a new team. It takes time to build a (national) fan base. And the Atlanta Dream are also a team that wasn’t expected to be here and another one I wouldn't say has a huge, huge fan base."
The Valkyries are -115 favorites to win the series, but the Dream are behind at -105.
A Golden State victory would be a “very small winner” for BetMGM.
“I could see over the course of the next week if we keep getting bets, that turns to essentially a break even,” Cipollini said. “Atlanta Dream would be the one that we would want to win right now.”
Lane said he has a hard time seeing the Valkyries lose because of their depth and home-court advantage. Golden State possesses perhaps the league's most intimidating atmosphere at “Ballhalla”, and Lane said he could see this going six games or even fewer.
“I think that Golden State looked at Vegas as a much bigger threat than anything that was going to come out of the East," Lane said. “So it’s going to be interesting how they refocus. Certainly, they’ve had plenty of time. If they win Game One, I think this series is maybe even five.”
There's an adage that life is too short to bet the under, but professionals often find more value in that.
And given this is a series between the league's two best teams in defensive scoring efficiency, the total of 154 1/2 at BetMGM for the opener reflects that. They're the only teams to allow less than a point per possession.
But Lane said be careful about assuming the under is going to come in.
“Golden State is certainly going to want to push tempo,” Lane said. “But defensively, they're both obviously outstanding teams.”
Both teams last played a week ago, so the layoff could affect their momentum from advancing to the Finals, but it's a problem each shares.
“I think it's a plus for both teams," Lane said. "They can get healthy and really hone in on what they want to do against each other.”
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See AP’s full WNBA coverage here
